1. The ‘Axis of Upheaval’ - China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. These four nations, Niall Ferguson says, are working with increasing cooperation and coordination, threatening democracies the world over. “Ukraine is one, Israel's another, Taiwan is probably next.”

2. The one-sided arms race - The USA used to be the ‘arsenal of democracy’, Niall says, but now it has fallen well behind China. “China is now the ‘arsenal of autocracy’” and, in the event of a hot war with China, “the US would run out of precision missiles in about five days, more or less.”

3. China’s economic power - “China has much greater resources technologically than any previous rival that the United States and its allies faced. The Soviet Union never had more than about 42% of the USA’s GDP.” China’s is “certainly in the 80% range and is above 100% if you do a purchasing power parity calculation.”

4. The USA’s worryingly low economic resilience - US debt servicing costs are about to overtake defence spending. “With interest rates rising and the deficits in excess of 5% of GDP as far as the eye can see…the US isn't actually able to cope with three military crises at once.”

In this week’s ARC Off-Stage Conversation, historian Niall Ferguson meets Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster of TRIGGERnometry to discuss the future of Western civilisation. Konstantin and Niall discuss some of the major threats we are facing, but Niall reminds us that these are no worse than those faces 50 years ago. The 70s saw huge inflation problems, deteriorating geopolitics in many regions, and concern about morality. But by 1980, “Ronald Reagan is elected. Nine years later, the Berlin Wall comes down, and two years after that, the Soviet Union's gone.”

Yes, the West currently faces serious problems and threats, but decline is never inevitable. We must remember our history because, despite “the declinists’” obsession with crisis and collapse, there is always hope for renewal.

We hope you enjoy this fascinating discussion between 3 world-leading commentators.

---

Konstantin Kisin is a political commentator, and TRIGGERnometry host.

Francis Foster is a writer, speaker, and TRIGGERnometry host.

Niall Ferguson is a renowned historian, Stanford and Harvard fellow, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.